{"lang":"en","locale":"en-GB","ui":{"appName":"The Breaking Point","tabs":{"oggi":"Today","scenari":"Scenarios","segnali":"Signals","dati":"Data","altro":"More"},"months":["Jan","Feb","Mar","Apr","May","Jun","Jul","Aug","Sep","Oct","Nov","Dec"],"st":{"calm":"calm","watch":"watch","alert":"on alert","brk":"threshold breached","nodata":"awaiting first data point"},"aged":"{n} days old","pending":{"in ingresso":"entering breach, awaiting confirmation","in uscita":"leaving breach, awaiting confirmation"},"trip":{"lontano":"far","vicino":"near","scattato":"triggered"},"conf":{"confermato":"verified","da confermare":"to be confirmed"},"fx":{"up":"strengthens","down":"weakens"},"live":"Data updated automatically","stale":"Last automatic update more than 36 hours ago","baked":"Snapshot built into the page","source":"Source","close":"Close","more":"Read more","less":"Show less","all":"All","lang":"Language","retry":"Content failed to load. Tap to try again.","loading":"Loading data…","noHistory":"History being built: one point for each new data point since 22 September 2026.","threshold":"threshold","range":{"3m":"3 months","1y":"1 year"},"prob":"probability","market":"market","dashboard":"dashboard","days":"days","perDay":"a day","ofNormal":"of normal","scenarios":"Linked scenarios","indicators":"The numbers","tripwires":"Signals to watch","latest":"Latest signals","seeAll":"See all","asOf":"as of","updated":"updated","measured":"Measured link","notMeasured":"Not measurable with daily data: the link is argued, not calculated.","tableView":"Show the values","disclaimer":"An analytical exercise, not financial advice or an investment recommendation.","units":{"cent":"¢","pb":"bp","gg":"d"},"cur":{"€/l":["€","/l"],"$":["$",""],"€":["€",""],"M$":["$","m"],"G$":["$","bn"]},"srcMap":{"Commissione UE, Weekly Oil Bulletin (media UE27 con tasse)":"European Commission, Weekly Oil Bulletin (EU27 average incl. taxes)","media di ":"average of ","distributori":"stations","dal massimo a 52 settimane":"from the 52-week high","media 7 gg":"7-day average","media 3 mesi":"3-month average"," a/a":" y/y","calcolato dalla scadenza":"computed from the deadline","ricerca iniziale":"initial research","stima di mercato":"market estimate","media sondaggi":"poll average","1° mese":"front month","sondaggi":"polls","agosto":"August","luglio":"July"," ott)":" Oct)"},"qual":{"Salto":"Step change"},"expired":"expired","now":"now","target":"threshold","openIn":"Open","related":"Related","goScen":"Go to scenario","manualNote":"verified by the morning research","autoNote":"calculated by the code from today's value"},"changes":{"title":"Since yesterday","none":"No significant change from the previous day.","history":"Timeline","historySub":"changes over recent days, most recent first","prevDay":"The previous day","lastDays":"The last {n} days","soglia_on":"Threshold breached: {n} at {v}","soglia_off":"Back within threshold: {n} at {v}","stato":"{n}: {st} ({v})","valore":"{n}: {v} ({d})","primo":"{n}: first data point, {v}","attesa":"{n}: {pending}","scenario":"{s}: {from}% → {to}%","previsione":"New prediction: {c} ({p}%, by {date})","risolta":"Prediction resolved ({status}): {c}","revisione":"{c}: {from}% → {to}%","mercato":"The market on “{c}”: {from}% → {to}%","headline":"Hormuz: {val}","regime":"Diagnosis updated: {val}","tripwire":"{t}: from {from} to {to}","segnali":"{n} new verified signals","v2":"The dashboard moves to the v2 engine: data from official sources, thresholds with confirmation, comparison with the markets, a daily hash.","predStatus":{"corretta":"correct","sbagliata":"wrong","annullata":"void","aperta":"open"}},"oggi":{"title":"Today","daysLabel":"days of Hormuz closure","daysSub":"{v:hormuz_transits} transits a day on average over the past week, {pct} of normal.","regimeDefault":"A supply shock turned regime. Risk has shifted from the cycle to duration.","breaches":"Thresholds breached","signalsTitle":"Today's signals","signalsEmpty":"No new verified signals today.","tensionsTitle":"Three things that cannot all be true","thesisTitle":"The thesis"},"map":{"title":"Causal map","caption":"Where the shock starts and where it could break. Tap a node for the numbers and the scenarios.","origin":"Origin","breaking":"Breaking point","legend":"Node status","flowTitle":"How it is transmitted","flowSub":"Each arrow is a mechanism. Where daily series exist, the link is also measured.","svgTitle":"Causal map of the shock","svgDesc":"Nine nodes linked by causal arrows: from the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to energy, inflation, the Fed and long-term rates, through to AI-related credit and Europe; Russia and China as side sources.","nodes":{"stretti":{"val":"{v} a day","name":"Straits","short":"Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb","desc":"About a fifth of the world's oil used to pass through Hormuz. It has been closed since 28 February 2026 and transits are a fraction of normal. Bab el-Mandeb, the other exit route from the Gulf, via the Red Sea, is under pressure from the Houthis."},"energia":{"val":"Brent {v}","name":"Energy","short":"Oil and gas","desc":"The supply shock shows up here before anywhere else: in the futures price and, even more, in the premium for oil available for immediate delivery. European gas is entering winter with storage below last year's level."},"inflazione":{"val":"core PCE {v}","name":"Inflation","short":"Prices and expectations","desc":"In the United States energy prices are up 16.3% year on year. Core consumer price inflation is 2.4%, core PCE 3.3%. Long-term expectations remain anchored."},"fed":{"val":"hike {v}","name":"Fed","short":"Monetary policy","desc":"On 16 September Kevin Warsh's Fed raised rates by 25bp unanimously, to 3.75-4.00%. The market is pricing the possibility of another hike."},"tassi":{"val":"30-year {v}","name":"Long rates","short":"30-year and term premium","desc":"This is where sovereign deficits, the term premium and the debt financing of AI infrastructure meet. It is the point where the system can break: above 5.75% on the 30-year, the marginal data centre stops paying its way."},"credito":{"val":"high yield {v}","name":"Credit & AI","short":"High yield and valuations","desc":"Credit says “no risk” while AI capex is increasingly financed with debt. If long-term rates rise far enough, the financing stops."},"europa":{"name":"Europe","short":"France and sovereign debt","desc":"The fault line is French: the OAT-Bund spread has exceeded 100bp for the first time since 2012, France borrows at a higher cost than Italy, and the presidential election is in April 2027."},"russia":{"name":"Russia","short":"War and energy","desc":"The front is almost static and the war has shifted to energy: Russian refineries hit, the sovereign wealth fund running dry, hybrid incidents in Europe."},"cina":{"name":"China","short":"Tariffs, rare earths, Taiwan","desc":"The tariff truce and the suspension of China's rare-earth rule were extended to 10 January 2027 (US announcement of 24 September, pending Beijing's formal confirmation). Around Taiwan the pressure is naval, not aerial."}},"edges":{"e1":{"label":"SUPPLY","mech":"Fewer tankers leave the Gulf, available crude falls and the price rises. The premium of physical oil over the futures contract measures how real the scarcity is."},"e2":{"label":"REFINERIES","mech":"Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries cut diesel exports and keep refining margins high. An energy truce would compress them."},"e3":{"label":"PRICES","mech":"Oil feeds into inflation through fuel and transport with a lag of a few months. In the United States energy prices are up 16.3% year on year."},"e4":{"label":"HIKES","mech":"With energy-driven inflation and a labour market that is holding up, the Fed is raising rates instead of cutting."},"e5":{"label":"CURVE","mech":"Rate hikes and fiscal uncertainty push the whole curve higher: the 30-year embeds both expected rates and a risk premium, the term premium."},"e6":{"label":"COST OF CAPITAL","mech":"The marginal data centre is financed with long-term debt. Above a certain cost of capital it stops paying its way and the financing stops. The high-yield spread is the seismograph."},"e7":{"label":"SPREAD","mech":"When the US long-term rate rises, the others rise too, and those with fragile public finances pay an extra premium. Today that means France."},"e8":{"label":"GAS","mech":"Expensive gas means idle industry in Germany and Italy, lower growth and higher deficits."},"e9":{"label":"RARE EARTHS","mech":"China's 0.1% rule on rare earths, if reactivated, hits semiconductors, defence and AI hardware: it is Beijing's lever over the supply chain."}}},"tensions":[{"title":"Credit says “no risk”","a":{"v":"{v:hy_oas}","l":"high-yield spread"},"b":{"v":"$3,000bn","l":"off-balance-sheet AI commitments"},"text":"The high-yield spread says there is nothing to fear. Michael Burry counts more than $3,000bn of off-balance-sheet commitments across five hyperscalers, in leases that have not yet started and construction projects that are not yet generating depreciation. Either credit is right, or the repricing has not yet begun."},{"title":"Equities are pricing 1999, bonds 2007","a":{"v":"{v:cape}","l":"CAPE (1999: 44.2)"},"b":{"v":"{v:us30y}","l":"30-year Treasury"},"text":"The CAPE is at its highest since the dot-com bubble and the Magnificent 7 make up 34% of the index. At the same time the US 30-year yield is above 5% and the Fed is hiking. A discount rate like this and a 40-times multiple describe two different worlds."},{"title":"Gold falls while the world burns","a":{"v":"−23%","l":"gold from its January peak"},"b":{"v":"{days}","l":"days of Hormuz closure"},"text":"Gold touched about $5,600 in January 2026 and on 22 September was around $4,340, with Hormuz closed. <b>The market is not pricing panic, it is pricing rising real rates.</b> This is a regime of monetary tightening, not of crisis."}],"thesis":["2026 <b>is not a credit cycle on the turn</b>. It is <b>a supply shock that has become a regime</b>. US inflation is 3.4% and core 2.4%: demand is not overheating, energy is (+16.3% year on year). That is why Kevin Warsh's Fed could hike unanimously on 16 September without breaking the labour market, and why the ECB also hiked, on 10 September.","The consequence is that <b>risk has shifted from the cycle to duration</b>. The breaking point is not a bank failure or a collapse in consumer spending: it is the long end of the yield curves. That is where sovereign deficits (5.4% of GDP in France), the term premium and the bond financing of AI infrastructure meet; the Dallas Fed puts the latter at about one-eighth of the US Treasury's annual supply of duration.","Hence the central forecast: <b>AI capex will not end in technological disappointment.</b> It will end, if it ends, because the 30-year yield has risen far enough to make the return on the marginal data centre negative. This is not an equity story. It is a rates story."],"scenari":{"title":"Scenarios","lede":"For each dossier, the possible outcomes with an explicit probability, the chain of causes leading to each one, and the signals that would confirm or refute it.","chain":"The chain","falsify":"Refuted if","marketNote":"Where the dashboard and the market diverge","tripsTitle":"Signals to watch","tripsLede":"The specific events that would move the probabilities. Those with a number are calculated by the code every morning; the others are verified against a source.","latest":"The latest news on this dossier","root":"Today","since":"since","revised":"Last revised","single":"stand-alone probability","ofFamily":"of the dossier total"},"families":[{"id":"hormuz","title":"Hormuz","why":"The node on which everything else depends","root":"Strait closed for {days} days · {v:hormuz_transits} transits a day","scen":["hormuz-a","hormuz-b","hormuz-c","hormuz-d"]},{"id":"ai","title":"AI and credit","why":"It is not a tech bubble, it is a question of rates","root":"30-year at {v:us30y} · high yield at {v:hy_oas}","scen":["ai-1","ai-2","ai-3"]},{"id":"ru","title":"Russia, Ukraine and NATO","why":"The front is almost static and the war has shifted to energy","root":"Russian refining {v:ru_refining} · Russian advance {v:ru_advance} a month","scen":["ru-1","ru-2","ru-3","ru-4"],"card":"ru-nato"},{"id":"cn","title":"United States and China","why":"The truce was extended to 10 January: the risk has moved, not gone","root":"{v:rare_earth} to the 10 January 2027 deadline","scen":["cn-1","cn-2"]},{"id":"slow","title":"The two slow fault lines","why":"Where risk builds beyond the markets' horizon","root":"Two stand-alone probabilities, not a family that sums to 100","scen":["fr","tw"],"single":true}],"scen":{"hormuz-a":{"title":"Negotiated reopening, in phases","one":"Iran and the United States reach a partial understanding: ships start passing again, oil falls, the Fed pauses.","cons":[["Brent $70-80","down"],["30-year −50bp","down"],["TTF gas €40-45","down"]],"steps":[{"h":"Iran needs a deal more","t":"The rial has lost about 40% of its value since March, inflation is at 88% and food prices are up 128%. Crude exports fell to 220-255 thousand barrels a day in August, from about 2 million before the war."},{"h":"So does Trump","t":"He has to bring fuel prices down before the vote on 3 November: on 11 September US diesel topped $6 a gallon for the first time. The electoral constraint weighs more than the hard line."},{"h":"Partial reopening","t":"Transits climb back above 40 a day within 6-10 weeks. Insurance premiums follow with a lag: they deflate, they do not collapse."},{"h":"Brent at $70-80","t":"Consistent with the EIA, which sees 2027 at $74 with a surplus of 4.9 million barrels a day. The market has already partly priced in a resolution."},{"h":"Rapid disinflation in 2027","t":"With US energy prices up 16.3% year on year, the base effect is brutal: headline inflation below 2.5% by March."},{"h":"The Fed pauses, long rates fall","t":"No hike in October, cuts by mid-2027. The term premium compresses and the 30-year heads back towards 4.75%."},{"h":"The bill comes later","t":"Without the energy alibi, AI is judged on its own numbers: returns, depreciation, leases not yet started."}],"falsify":"At the end of October transits are still below 15 a day, or the United States does not lift the blockade and sticks to its demand for “zero enrichment”. The truces of 8 April and 17 June collapsed on exactly that point."},"hormuz-b":{"title":"Grinding stalemate","one":"No deal: the Strait stays almost closed, oil trades between $95 and $115, the Fed hikes again and long rates rise.","cons":[["Brent $95-115","up"],["30-year above 5.50%","up"],["OAT-Bund above 120bp","up"]],"steps":[{"h":"The talks produce nothing","t":"The sticking point is structural: Iran claims authority over the passage, the United States demands toll-free transit and zero enrichment."},{"h":"The Fed hikes again","t":"The dot plot already says so: 12 of 18 participants see rates at 4.125% at the end of 2026, 4 at 4.375%."},{"h":"The 30-year above 5.50%","t":"The term premium exceeds 120bp: this is where the cost of capital starts to weigh on data-centre financing."},{"h":"Europe enters winter exposed","t":"In mid-September gas storage was at 68%, almost 8 points below a year earlier. A cold January pushes TTF above €100 and halts industry in Germany and Italy."},{"h":"France and the UK under pressure","t":"The French spread exceeds 120bp over the 2027 budget. The UK reaches its 28 October budget with the 30-year above 5.7% and has to raise taxes."},{"h":"Technical recession in the eurozone","t":"The +0.6% of the second quarter came almost entirely from net exports, while inventories and public spending did not help: it is unlikely to be repeated."}],"falsify":"Brent falls below $85 without a formal deal, a sign that supply from outside the Gulf is compensating faster than expected, or payrolls turn negative and the Fed is forced to pause."},"hormuz-c":{"title":"Escalation: Bab el-Mandeb closes too","one":"Both exits from the Gulf close at once: oil at $140-160, a global recession, and credit breaks.","cons":[["Brent $140-160","up"],["High yield 550-700bp","up"],["Equities −25/−35%","down"]],"steps":[{"h":"Part of it has already happened","t":"On 10-11 September the Houthis took Mocha, the Zuqar and Hanish islands and Perim island (Mayyun), on the Bab el-Mandeb strait. On 19 September they claimed attacks on Riyadh and on Aramco's facilities at Yanbu."},{"h":"The decisive technical point","t":"With Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia exports towards the Red Sea through the East-West pipeline. On 11 September drones launched from Iraq halted it; it restarted at low throughput only on the 22nd. If Bab el-Mandeb closes too, that crude has no outlet left."},{"h":"An alternative trigger","t":"A US strike on nuclear sites, or Iran's withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): on 20 September some MPs tabled a bill to that effect. The IAEA does not know where 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% is, and on 9 September it referred Iran to the Security Council."},{"h":"Brent at $140-160","t":"Goldman Sachs gives $115 as its upside scenario with only Hormuz closed: closing both straits goes beyond that."},{"h":"Synchronised global recession","t":"Central banks remain trapped: hike into a recession or tolerate double-digit inflation."},{"h":"Only here does credit break","t":"The high-yield spread goes from {v:hy_oas} to 550-700bp. Equities −25/−35%, amplified by a CAPE of {v:cape} and 34% concentration."}],"note":{"kind":"warn","h":"The asymmetry","t":"Low probability, but a disproportionate share of the expected damage. With the high-yield spread at {v:hy_oas}, the market asks almost nothing for taking on this risk: it is the case in which protection is cheap because almost nobody is buying it."}},"hormuz-d":{"title":"Breakdown of the Iranian regime","one":"The regime gives way from within: first chaos and higher oil, then reopening and sharply lower oil.","cons":[["Brent +30%, then −40%","flat"]],"steps":[{"h":"The underlying signs are there","t":"A recent succession, with Mojtaba Khamenei in place since 8 March; the rial has collapsed; inflation at 88% and food prices up 128%; a water crisis after six years of drought; blackouts of up to 5 hours a day."},{"h":"The regime fears the street","t":"On 18 September a Basij exercise with up to 330,000 participants and open-ended street deployments: the response of an apparatus that fears the street, not the external enemy."},{"h":"Why it remains a remote possibility","t":"External war consolidates regimes more often than it breaks them, and the security apparatus is intact. A successful revolution needs a split within the armed forces, and none is visible."},{"h":"If it happens","t":"First +30% on Brent in a week because of the chaos, then −40% over three months with the reopening and the return of 1.5-2 million Iranian barrels a day."}],"note":{"kind":"note","h":"The mistake to avoid","t":"Mistaking economic hardship for political instability. Misery can be measured; a split in the security apparatus is the only variable that matters, and it is almost always invisible until it has happened."}},"ai-1":{"title":"Digestion, not rupture","one":"Capex slows without a crash: those funding it from cash hold up, those funding it with debt suffer. The index holds, concentration falls.","cons":[["Equal-weight beats the Magnificent 7","flat"],["No credit event","flat"]],"steps":[{"h":"The dress rehearsal has already happened","t":"On 5 June 2026 the semiconductor index lost 10.3% in one session, its worst since March 2020, with about 1,300 billion of market capitalisation wiped out; on 8 June the Kospi hit its circuit breaker. The recovery came within a few days."},{"h":"Forecasts are trimmed, not cut","t":"The hyperscalers have real cash: capex becomes a permanent structural cost, not a cycle."},{"h":"Financing makes the difference","t":"Those paying from cash hold up; those using off-balance-sheet vehicles, leases not yet started and supplier credit are punished. Oracle is the textbook case: 288 billion of leases not yet started against 43.8 billion of recognised liabilities (balance sheet at 31 August)."},{"h":"Equal-weight beats the index","t":"It is the orderly way in which 34% concentration comes down without crashes, and the way in which a concentrated portfolio loses ground without ever receiving a signal that forces it to act."}],"falsify":"A data-centre-related bond issue of more than $5bn is pulled or repriced by more than 100bp, or a hyperscaler extends the useful life of GPUs on its balance sheet: the accounting signal that usually precedes earnings cuts."},"ai-2":{"title":"Financing stops","one":"The 30-year goes above 5.75%: the marginal data centre stops paying its way and capex stops because of arithmetic, not disappointment.","cons":[["Nasdaq −20/−30%","down"],["High yield 450-550bp","up"]],"steps":[{"h":"It depends on Hormuz","t":"Without high oil prices the Fed does not hike again and the 30-year does not reach 5.75%. This scenario is the offspring of stalemate or escalation in Hormuz: the two must be read together."},{"h":"The 30-year goes above 5.75%","t":"With twenty-year leases and depreciation due for revision, the return on the marginal data centre falls below the cost of capital."},{"h":"A bond issue is pulled","t":"The first signal will not be a default but a withdrawn placement. A secondary market already exists: in April PIMCO tried to sell part of $14bn of debt linked to Oracle's data centres."},{"h":"The collateral is reassessed","t":"CoreWeave raised $8.5bn with an investment-grade rating secured on GPUs. According to Michael Burry, GPUs lose their value in 2-3 years but are depreciated over 5-6: the cumulative understatement for 2026-28 would be about $176bn."},{"h":"Capex stops","t":"Nasdaq −20/−30%, high-yield spread at 450-550bp, equal-weight falls much less. The wealth effect reaches spending by higher-income households with a 6-12 month lag."}],"note":{"kind":"note","h":"The honest gap","t":"There are no reliable public data on the return on capital invested in AI. Anyone who says with confidence that the returns are there, or that they are not, is extrapolating."}},"ai-3":{"title":"Melt-up","one":"Oil down, inflation down, the Fed cuts: the discount rate falls while capex continues, and valuations return to the highs of 1999.","cons":[["CAPE towards 44","up"],["More leverage, same problem later","flat"]],"steps":[{"h":"Reopening plus disinflation","t":"Hormuz scenario A, with inflation falling sharply in the first quarter of 2027."},{"h":"The Fed cuts two or three times in 2027","t":"Against a dot plot that currently projects no cuts: the repricing is huge."},{"h":"The CAPE rises towards 44","t":"The level of November 1999."},{"h":"Why it is the worst ending","t":"It pushes the problem back by 12-18 months and makes it worse: more leverage, more leases not yet started, more concentration. 1999 was not a good year, because it was followed by 2000."}],"note":{"kind":"plain","h":"Worth remembering","t":"The CAPE's all-time high is 44.2. The distance from here does not justify positioning for this scenario: it explains why it is hard to get out in time."}},"ru-1":{"title":"Grinding continuation","one":"No breakthrough: Moscow will not give up the Donbas, Kyiv will not give up on guarantees, and the war goes on through drones and refineries.","cons":[["Expensive diesel in Europe","up"],["Ukraine: the crux becomes financial","flat"]],"steps":[{"h":"The truces do not hold","t":"The May truce was violated almost at once. In early September Moscow rejected the frontline truce proposed by Kyiv and accepted only a halt to attacks on Kyiv and Moscow from 5 to 7 September; on the night of 4 to 5 September it had launched ballistic missiles and 167 drones."},{"h":"The positions do not move","t":"Witkoff and Kushner met Putin on 5 September without result."},{"h":"The guarantees stay on paper","t":"The Paris Declaration, signed by 35 countries, is activated only after a ceasefire: today it does not exist operationally."},{"h":"The crux becomes financial","t":"Ukraine is short of about €23bn for 2026 according to the latest EU estimate (19 September) and at least $32bn for 2027 according to its finance minister."}],"extra":{"h":"The bottleneck","items":["<b>European Council on 15-16 October</b>: the loan backed by €210bn of frozen Russian assets.","The obstacle is Belgian: Prime Minister De Wever wants every member state to share the legal risk.","Dashboard estimate for a legally binding text by the end of the year: <b>about 45%</b>."]}},"ru-2":{"title":"Energy truce","one":"No peace, but a mutual halt to attacks on refineries and power grids: diesel falls, the front stays static.","cons":[["Brent −$3/−$5","down"],["Diesel margins falling","down"]],"steps":[{"h":"Putin is in a hurry","t":"Heating season, a liquid sovereign wealth fund running dry, a 2026 budget built on Urals at $59 against about 55 actually realised. Putin has admitted publicly that he got his assessment of the attacks on refineries wrong."},{"h":"Zelensky cashes in on his best lever","t":"On 22 September, after meeting Trump at the UN, he said he was ready for an energy truce if Russia stops striking Ukraine's grid. The Kremlin called it a “good idea” but wants fewer sanctions on its exports in return."},{"h":"Russia repairs its refineries","t":"Within 4-8 weeks. Diesel margins, currently at record levels in the Atlantic basin, compress."},{"h":"Brent −$3/−$5","t":"The direct effect. The front stays frozen: this is not a prelude to peace, it is an accounting pause for both sides."}],"note":{"kind":"note","h":"The false positive","t":"A ten-day pause is not a truce: this conflict has already produced several operational pauses that were read as turning points."}},"ru-3":{"title":"Peace agreement","one":"A comprehensive agreement with operational security guarantees. Nothing points to it today: on the Donbas and on guarantees the positions remain irreconcilable.","cons":[["European gas falling","down"],["European risk premium falling","down"]],"steps":[{"h":"What it would take","t":"A ceasefire along the whole front that holds for more than a few days, and the activation of the guarantees provided for in the Paris Declaration."}]},"ru-4":{"title":"Russian fiscal breakdown","one":"The liquid sovereign wealth fund runs dry and the budget cannot hold: Moscow is forced to negotiate from a position of weakness.","cons":[["Rouble under pressure","down"]],"steps":[{"h":"The constraint","t":"The 2026 budget assumes Urals at $59 a barrel; analysts see about 55 or less. The liquid part of the sovereign fund is estimated at around {v:ru_nwf}."}]},"ru-nato":{"title":"Hybrid war: from harassment to physical damage","one":"This is not an alternative scenario: it is already under way.","steps":[{"h":"Leipzig, 4 August 2026","t":"An FPV drone carrying 800 grams of Semtex hit the wing of an An-124 at Leipzig/Halle airport, without exploding. It had a 5G router and two SIM cards: it could be flown from anywhere on the planet. Leipzig hosts the NATO mission for strategic transport to the eastern flank."},{"h":"Two more incidents in ten days","t":"On 5 August a Boeing 757 struck a drone at 400 metres during a go-around; on 14 August, a third drone carrying 50 grams of RDX at Kabelsketal."},{"h":"NATO changes its rules of engagement","t":"At the Ankara summit on 8 July, Baltic Air Policing became an air defence mission with engagement authority delegated to SACEUR. Four drones shot down in 2026, two of them after Ankara; at least three were Ukrainian drones diverted by Russian electronic warfare."},{"h":"The most worrying signal is defensive","t":"In April Estonia suspended boardings of the shadow fleet because “the risk of military escalation is too high”. An ally that restrains itself out of fear is the sign of a deterrent that is not working."}],"extra":{"h":"Dashboard estimates at 12 months","items":["New invocation of <b>Article 4</b>: <b>55%</b>","A fatality in a NATO country attributed to Russian hybrid action: <b>25%</b>","NATO military response on Russian or Belarusian territory: <b>7%</b>"]},"note":{"kind":"plain","h":"To be weighed with caution","t":"Czech intelligence speaks of Russian military action against NATO within “months, not years”; the Baltic authorities, who are closer, see no indicators of an imminent attack."}},"cn-1":{"title":"The trade truce is extended","one":"Washington and Beijing postpone: the tariff truce and the suspension of the rare-earth rule are extended, without real guarantees.","cons":[["No supply shock","flat"]],"steps":[{"h":"The shape of the deal is visible","t":"Reciprocal tariff cuts (still under negotiation), farm purchases of at least $17bn a year, 200 Boeings, a Board of Trade and a Board of Investment."},{"h":"Signs of détente","t":"On 20 September the two sides said they wanted to open a dialogue on AI. On the 21st the trade representative, Greer, put the “probably right” length of the extension at 3-6 months. Xi is in Washington for a summit on 24 September."},{"h":"Both need time","t":"Trump with inflation at 3.4% and the vote six weeks away; Xi with GDP at 4.3%, a target missed for the first time since Covid, and retail sales at +0.4%."},{"h":"But the leverage remains China's","t":"In September some Chinese suppliers blocked already authorised rare-earth shipments to American customers, fearing retaliation from Beijing. No operational guarantee."}],"extra":{"h":"What will not be resolved","items":["<b>Taiwan:</b> Trump has put a $14bn arms package on hold, calling it “a good bargaining chip”.","<b>Chips:</b> H200 sales authorised in January but negligible deliveries; Blackwell and Rubin remain banned."]}},"cn-2":{"title":"Rare-earth flare-up","one":"No extension: the 0.1% rule returns and every product in the world containing Chinese rare earths needs a licence from Beijing.","cons":[["Defence and chips under pressure","down"],["Copper and critical minerals","up"]],"steps":[{"h":"The calendar is almost designed for an accident","t":"10 January 2027: the two-month extension puts the deadline after the midterms, with a possibly weakened Trump just as he has to negotiate."},{"h":"An extraterritorial rule","t":"It is not a tariff: it is a Chinese licensing right over products made anywhere. Defence, electric cars, robotics, semiconductors, wind turbines."},{"h":"Those who cannot substitute pay at once","t":"European and American defence is the most exposed: more munitions and missiles need magnets with no alternative supply chain in the short term."},{"h":"The second-order effect","t":"Strain on copper and critical minerals: copper hit an all-time high in August and global mine output fell by 1.1% in the first half."}],"note":{"kind":"note","h":"Why it is underestimated","t":"The market learned from 2025 that tariff threats get resolved: according to Bloomberg Economics, Trump followed through on only about 25% of his. But the expiry of Announcement 61 is not an American threat: it is a Chinese suspension that lapses on its own if nobody renews it."}},"fr":{"title":"France: an RN presidency in May 2027","one":"The National Rally (RN) wins the presidential election: widening spreads, rating action, and an ECB without an instrument ready.","cons":[["OAT-Bund 130-150bp","up"],["Dearer French mortgages","up"]],"steps":[{"h":"The judicial constraint has gone","t":"On 7 July 2026 the Paris Court of Appeal reduced Marine Le Pen's ineligibility: she can stand and has announced her candidacy."},{"h":"The first-round numbers","t":"Bardella at 34% or Le Pen at 33.5% depending on the hypothesis; with Reconquête the bloc is around 38% (France-Vote average). Philippe 17.3%, Mélenchon 15.6%, Attal 11.5%: the centre and the left are fragmented."},{"h":"The economy is working for them","t":"A deficit of 5.4% of GDP, debt heading towards 121.7% in 2027, unemployment at 8.3%. The Lecornu government's 2027 budget, with a fiscal effort of about €54bn, goes to the Council of Ministers in early October, facing an Assembly with no majority."},{"h":"The sequence to watch","t":"Budget rejected, censure motion, new government or dissolution, spread towards 130-150bp, rating action. Moody's reviews France on 23 October, S&P on 27 November."}],"extra":{"h":"Related dashboard estimates","items":["OAT-Bund above <b>150bp</b> before April 2027: <b>30%</b>","Dissolution of the Assembly before April 2027: <b>25%</b>","Downgrade by at least one major agency by June 2027: <b>50%</b>"]},"note":{"kind":"plain","h":"The reasoning","t":"In 2017 and 2022 the republican front held in the run-off. The estimate goes no higher because that mechanism has worked twice; but its effectiveness declines with each cycle, and with Bardella the rejection reflex is historically weaker."}},"tw":{"title":"Taiwan: quarantine within 24 months","one":"Not an invasion: naval control presented as law enforcement, cutting the island off from trade.","cons":[["Semiconductors","down"],["Freight and insurance","up"]],"steps":[{"h":"Read the ships, not the planes","t":"Air incursions fell by 52% in the first seven months of the year, while Chinese government vessels around the island are at record levels: 244 in July, about 60% of them coast guard."},{"h":"They are already questioning merchant ships","t":"Chinese units have questioned merchant ships by radio along Taiwan's east coast; Beijing says it “inspected” 198 in June. No confirmed boarding."},{"h":"Invasion impracticable, blockade easy","t":"With the Central Military Commission cut from 7 to 2 active members and half the top brass purged, CSIS judges an invasion impracticable today but a naval blockade “relatively easy”."},{"h":"The windows","t":"China's defence mobilisation law is in force from 1 October, Taiwan's local elections are on 28 November, and US military power is tied up in Hormuz."}],"note":{"kind":"plain","h":"How people get Taiwan wrong","t":"By counting planes. The incursion count became the consensus metric just as it stopped being informative. What matters today is the coast guard east of the island: a quarantine presents itself as law enforcement, not as an act of war."}}},"scenShort":{"hormuz-a":"Deal reopens the strait","hormuz-b":"Stalemate drags on","hormuz-c":"Conflict spreads","hormuz-d":"Iran's regime collapses","ai-1":"AI boom slows gently","ai-2":"AI funding dries up","ai-3":"AI bubble inflates","ru-1":"War grinds on","ru-2":"Energy truce","ru-3":"Peace deal","ru-4":"Russia runs out of money","ru-nato":"Hybrid attacks turn physical","cn-1":"Trade truce extended","cn-2":"Rare-earth clash","fr":"RN wins in France","tw":"China quarantines Taiwan"},"trips":{"hz-20":"Hormuz transits above 20 a day (7-day average)","hz-40":"Hormuz transits above 40 a day (7-day average)","hz-block":"The United States lifts the naval blockade or signs a deal with Iran","hz-iaea":"IAEA inspectors return to Iran","hz-vlcc":"VLCC insurance premium below $5m","hz-brent85":"Brent below $85","hz-ttf85":"TTF gas above €85","fed-oct":"The Fed hikes again on 28 October","hz-bab10":"Bab el-Mandeb transits below 10 a day","hz-houthi":"The Houthis strike non-US ships in the Red Sea","hz-eastwest":"Disruption of the Saudi East-West pipeline","hz-npt":"Iran withdraws from the NPT","hz-hy400":"High-yield spread above 400bp","hz-security":"Visible split in Iran's security forces","ai-30y":"30-year Treasury above 5.75%","ai-tp":"Term premium above 120bp","ai-bond":"A data-centre bond of more than $5bn pulled or repriced by more than 100bp","ai-gpu":"A hyperscaler extends the useful life of GPUs on its balance sheet","ai-cape":"CAPE above 44","ru-energy":"Truce on energy infrastructure announced","ru-eu":"The European Council approves the loan backed by Russian assets","ru-nwf":"Russia's liquid sovereign fund below $27bn","ru-art4":"New invocation of NATO's Article 4","ru-victim":"A fatality in a NATO country from Russian hybrid action","cn-ext":"Official announcement of the US-China truce extension","cn-re":"China revokes licences or reactivates the rare-earth rule","tw-ships":"Chinese vessels near Taiwan above 300 a month","tw-cg":"The Chinese coast guard boards or inspects ships near Taiwan","fr-oat130":"OAT-Bund spread above 130bp","fr-rn42":"RN bloc above 42% in the first round","fr-budget":"2027 budget rejected or censure motion passed","fr-dissolve":"Dissolution of the National Assembly","fr-rating":"France downgraded by S&P, Moody's or Fitch"},"groups":{"energia":{"t":"Energy and Hormuz","s":"It drives everything else"},"macro":{"t":"Macro, rates and credit","s":"The breaking point is the long end"},"europa":{"t":"Europe","s":"The fault line is French, not Italian"},"russia":{"t":"Russia and Ukraine","s":"The centre of gravity has shifted to energy"},"cina":{"t":"China and supply chains","s":"Read the ships, not the planes"}},"ind":{"hormuz_transits":{"n":"Hormuz transits","s":"IMF PortWatch, 7-day average · 2025: 85 a day","lo":"0","mid":"40 reopening","hi":"85","m":"The number that matters more than the price. Above 40 a day on the weekly average, the reopening is real. It is the same series on which prediction markets settle their Hormuz bets."},"bab_transits":{"n":"Bab el-Mandeb transits","s":"IMF PortWatch, 7-day average · 2023: 75 a day","lo":"0","mid":"10 closure","hi":"75","m":"The Gulf's other exit. With Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia exports from the Red Sea: if this average falls to 10, both routes are closed."},"brent":{"n":"Brent","s":"ICE futures, front month","lo":"$60","mid":"$120","hi":"$160","m":"Below $85 without a deal refutes the stalemate; above $120 we enter the escalation scenario."},"brent_phys":{"n":"Physical Brent premium","s":"Dated Brent minus futures, same date","lo":"0","mid":"$10 stress","hi":"$40","m":"How much more oil for immediate delivery costs than the futures contract. In normal times it is below $1. As long as it stays high the physical market is broken, whatever the headline price says."},"vlcc_war_risk":{"n":"VLCC insurance premium","s":"war risk per transit, market estimate","lo":"0","mid":"$3m","hi":"$12m","m":"The most honest thermometer: the spot price can fall on a rumour, insurance cannot. It follows the reopening, it does not anticipate it."},"ttf":{"n":"TTF gas","s":"ICE futures, front month","lo":"€20","mid":"€100 crisis","hi":"€150","m":"Above €100 per MWh, industrial demand destruction begins in Germany and Italy."},"fuel_eu":{"n":"Diesel at the pump, EU","s":"EU27 weighted average, taxes included, weekly","lo":"€1.40","mid":"€2.10 (2022 record)","hi":"€2.60","m":"Where Hormuz reaches every household and every lorry. Above the 2022 record of about €2.10 a litre, the energy shock is no longer a market story: it is a cost-of-living story, and a political one."},"fuel_fr":{"n":"Diesel at the pump, France","s":"average of all stations, updated daily","lo":"€1.40","mid":"€2.10","hi":"€2.60","m":"The live version of the European number, from the government's open data on every French station. Diesel moves first because Europe imports it: the Red Sea and Hormuz both sit on its supply routes."},"eu_gas_storage":{"n":"EU gas storage","s":"AGSI, average fill level","lo":"0%","mid":"50% in January","hi":"100%","m":"Europe is entering winter with thinner margins than in 2025: in mid-September almost 8 points below a year earlier. A cold January below 50% means industrial rationing."},"hy_oas":{"n":"High-yield spread","s":"ICE BofA, FRED data","lo":"200","mid":"400bp","hi":"1000","m":"The single most important indicator. As long as it stays below 400bp, every bursting-bubble thesis is premature. Above 400 the regime has changed."},"us30y":{"n":"30-year Treasury","s":"US Treasury yield","lo":"4.0%","mid":"5.75%","hi":"6.0%","m":"Above 5.75% the return on the marginal data centre turns negative and AI financing stops. It is the real transmission channel."},"term_premium":{"n":"10-year term premium","s":"ACM model, FRED data","lo":"0","mid":"150bp","hi":"200","m":"The compensation the market demands for holding long-dated bonds. Above 150bp it is a premium for fiscal risk, not for inflation: it is when the deficit stops being free."},"be5y5y":{"n":"5y5y inflation expectations","s":"US, from inflation-linked bonds","lo":"2.0%","mid":"2.75%","hi":"3.0%","m":"The inflation the market expects between five and ten years from now. As long as it stays anchored, the Fed's hikes are credible and the shock remains a shock. Above 2.75% the market starts to have doubts."},"fed_hike_mkt":{"n":"Fed hike at the next meeting","s":"market probability, Kalshi","lo":"0%","mid":"60%","hi":"100%","m":"The price the market puts on a hike at the next meeting. It is the benchmark for the Fed prediction in the Register."},"core_pce":{"n":"Core PCE","s":"BEA, year on year","lo":"2.0%","mid":"3.6%","hi":"4.0%","m":"The underlying inflation the Fed really watches. Above 3.6% another hike becomes almost certain."},"payrolls_3m":{"n":"New US jobs","s":"BLS, average of the last 3 months","lo":"0 break","mid":"","hi":"250k","m":"A labour market that hires little but fires little: that is what gives the Fed the political room to hike. Below zero the problem becomes recession."},"cape":{"n":"Shiller CAPE","s":"S&P 500 · Magnificent 7 at 34%","lo":"15","mid":"44.2 in 1999","hi":"46","m":"Valuation is not a timing signal, it is a severity multiplier: it tells you how much it hurts when it happens, not when it happens."},"mortgage30":{"n":"US 30-year mortgage","s":"Freddie Mac weekly average, via FRED","lo":"5%","mid":"7.5%","hi":"8%","m":"The long Treasury yield in a household's language. Above 7.5% home sales seize up and the wealth effect turns negative: this is where the breaking point reaches the kitchen table."},"spx_dd":{"n":"US shares from their high","s":"S&P 500, distance from the 52-week high","lo":"0","mid":"−15%","hi":"−30%","m":"The AI thesis is priced in equities before it shows up in credit. A 15% drawdown while high-yield spreads are still calm is the signature of a valuation correction; with spreads above 400 bp it is a credit event."},"jgb30":{"n":"Japan 30-year bond","s":"JGB yield","lo":"2%","mid":"4%","hi":"5%","m":"Japan is the world's largest foreign holder of Treasuries. When its own long bonds pay 4%, that money stays home: a rising JGB pushes US and European long rates up from the outside."},"eu_hicp":{"n":"Euro-area inflation","s":"HICP, year on year, via FRED","lo":"0%","mid":"3%","hi":"5%","m":"The number that decides whether the ECB can cut while the Fed hikes. Above 3% the energy shock has spread to the rest of the basket and the ECB is trapped too."},"oat_bund":{"n":"OAT-Bund spread","s":"France 10-year minus Germany","lo":"40","mid":"130bp","hi":"180","m":"Above 100bp for the first time since 2012, on 18 September. Above 130 it is a full-blown political crisis; above 150 the ECB finds it has no instrument ready."},"fr_vs_it":{"n":"France versus Italy","s":"10-year OAT minus 10-year BTP","lo":"−40","mid":"0 parity","hi":"+40","m":"France borrows at a higher cost than Italy. A historical correlation that breaks is the sign of a regime change."},"cds_fr":{"n":"France 5-year CDS","s":"cost of insurance against default","lo":"20","mid":"80bp","hi":"140","m":"Pure credit risk, net of the ECB purchases that distort the spread. If it rises together with the OAT-Bund the problem is fiscal; if it rises on its own it is political."},"gilt30":{"n":"30-year gilt","s":"United Kingdom · 1 September: 5.89%, highest since 1998","lo":"4.0%","mid":"6.0%","hi":"6.5%","m":"British fiscal headroom has shrunk to about £8-14bn. Above 6% it is a Truss moment."},"rn_bloc":{"n":"RN bloc in the first round","s":"RN plus Reconquête, polling average","lo":"25%","mid":"42%","hi":"50%","m":"Above 42% for the nationalist bloc in the first round, the 2027 run-off becomes winnable."},"afd":{"n":"AfD, national average","s":"German polls","lo":"10%","mid":"32%","hi":"40%","m":"The cordon sanitaire holds but produces ungovernability: the CDU is at around 20%."},"ru_refining":{"n":"Russian refining shortfall","s":"relative to normal","lo":"0","mid":"−10% truce","hi":"−50%","m":"The most effective lever of the whole war: tens of millions of Russians facing fuel restrictions. A rapid recovery would signal an energy truce signed before it becomes public."},"ru_advance":{"n":"Monthly Russian advance","s":"ISW, square kilometres · August 2025: 505","lo":"0","mid":"250 km²","hi":"500","m":"Down 82% in a year. In August 2026 Ukraine retook more ground than it lost."},"ru_nwf":{"n":"Russia's liquid sovereign fund","s":"liquid portion, billions of dollars","lo":"0","mid":"","hi":"$180bn","m":"The 2026 budget assumes Urals at $59 a barrel; analysts see about 55 or less. It is the constraint that determines Moscow's negotiating position in 2027."},"hybrid":{"n":"Hybrid incidents in Europe","s":"latest step-up: Leipzig, 4 August","lo":"harassment","mid":"NATO fatality","hi":"","m":"From disruption to physical damage at a NATO logistics hub. Delegating engagement authority to SACEUR is the first substantive change to the rules of engagement since 2022."},"tw_ships":{"n":"Chinese vessels near Taiwan","s":"government vessels a month, mostly coast guard","lo":"50","mid":"","hi":"300 quarantine","m":"The counter-intuitive figure of the year: air incursions are falling while the naval presence is at record levels. Beijing is rehearsing a quarantine, not a landing."},"rare_earth":{"n":"Rare earths: the 0.1% rule","s":"days to the 10 January 2027 deadline (extended on 24 September)","lo":"10/11/25","mid":"","hi":"10/01/27","m":"If it comes back into force, it subjects to Chinese licensing any product in the world containing at least 0.1% by value of controlled Chinese rare earths. It is the real weapon, not tariffs."},"cmc":{"n":"Military Commission: active members","s":"from 7 to 2","lo":"0","mid":"5 full","hi":"7","m":"CSIS judges it organisationally decapitated: an invasion impracticable today, a naval blockade still relatively easy."},"cn_retail":{"n":"China retail sales","s":"year on year","lo":"0 deflation","mid":"","hi":"+6%","m":"House prices have been falling for more than three years and domestic demand remains weak: Chinese growth depends on exports."}},"hero":{"brent_phys":"Physical Brent premium","fed_hike_mkt":"Fed hike (market)"},"dati":{"title":"Data","lede":"Every indicator with its history, its threshold, the source and the date. The automatic ones arrive every morning from official sources; the others are researched and dated.","rangeLabel":"Period","auto":"automatic","manual":"researched","chartOf":"{n} over time, with the threshold","lastValue":"latest value","min":"low","max":"high","corrTitle":"Measured links","corrLede":"Which indicators really move together. Correlation of weekly changes over the last 52 weeks: +1 together, −1 in opposite directions, 0 no link.","corrMethod":"Pearson correlation of weekly changes (in percentage terms for Brent and gas, in levels for the others), calculated every morning by the code on the official series. “Not significant” means that, with this many weeks of data, the link cannot be told apart from chance.","corrNa":"insufficient data","sig":"significant","notSig":"not significant","strength":{"none":"no clear link","weak":"weak link","mid":"moderate link","strong":"strong link"},"together":"move together","opposite":"move in opposite directions","expect":"Expected","pairs":{"hz-brent":{"read":"negative (fewer ships, dearer oil)"},"brent-ttf":{"read":"positive (the same energy shock)"},"brent-be":{"read":"positive (oil feeds into inflation expectations)"},"brent-30y":{"read":"positive (the heart of the thesis: oil pushes long rates up)"},"be-30y":{"read":"positive (more expected inflation, higher yields)"},"30y-tp":{"read":"positive and partly mechanical (the term premium is a component of the yield)"},"30y-hy":{"read":"positive if high rates put credit under stress; so far this is the dashboard's tension"},"brent-hy":{"read":"close to zero in a supply shock without a credit crisis"}}},"segnali":{"title":"Signals","lede":"The verified facts that move the scenarios, each with its source. Only what has a primary source or two independent sources gets in.","filter":"Dossier","empty":"No signals for this dossier in recent days.","effects":"Effect on the scenarios","source2":"2nd source","famAll":"All","fam":{"hormuz":"Hormuz","ai":"AI and credit","ru":"Russia","cn":"US-China","slow":"France and Taiwan"},"method":"Every morning the research starts from primary sources (governments, central banks, the IAEA, news agencies). A report that is denied stays in the record next to the denial, with both sources."},"calendario":{"title":"Calendar","lede":"Events arrive on deadlines, meetings and elections. The calendar is the term structure of political risk.","items":[["Sep 24","usa",3,"Xi-Trump summit in Washington","State visit from 23 to 25 September. On the agenda: extending the truce, by 3-6 months according to trade representative Greer."],["Sep 27","europa",1,"France: Senate elections","Renewal of one of the two series of Senate seats."],["Sep 30","macro",2,"United States: August core PCE","Above 3.6%, another Fed hike in October becomes almost certain."],["Sep 30-Oct 1","europa",2,"France: 2027 budget at the Council of Ministers","A fiscal effort of about €54bn, facing an Assembly with no majority. Legal deadline for tabling: 6 October."],["Oct 1","usa",2,"China: defence mobilisation law in force","Authorises the requisition of ships, aircraft, land, satellite communications and drone production."],["Oct 15-16","europa",3,"European Council: loan backed by Russian assets","€210bn frozen. The obstacle is Belgium's demand that the legal risk be shared."],["Oct 23","europa",2,"Moody's reviews France's rating","On 18 September Scope already cut it to A+ and DBRS moved the outlook to negative."],["Oct 26-29","usa",2,"China: fifth plenum of the Central Committee","Historically the plenum at which the congress is prepared."],["Oct 27-28","macro",3,"Fed meeting","The dot plot implies another hike by December."],["Oct 28","europa",3,"United Kingdom: Autumn Budget","With the 30-year gilt above 5.7% and fiscal headroom of about £8-14bn."],["Nov 3","usa",3,"United States: midterm elections","The Democrats are favourites for the House; the Senate hangs in the balance."],["Jan 10","usa",3,"Deadline with China","The tariff truce and the suspension of the rare-earth rule, extended by two months on 24 September, expire together."],["Nov 27","europa",2,"S&P reviews France's rating","The second major agency before the end of the year."],["Nov 28","usa",2,"Taiwan: local elections","A midterm test for President Lai."],["Dec 8-9","macro",2,"December Fed meeting","The last chance for the hike implied by the 2026 dot plot."],["Jan 2027","europa",1,"Russia: liquid part of the sovereign fund nearing exhaustion","It determines Moscow's negotiating position for the whole of 2027."],["Apr 2027","europa",3,"France: presidential election","For any French decision on debt, housing or taxes, this date separates before from after."],["Autumn 2027","usa",2,"China: 21st Party Congress","No designated successor. It coincides with the centenary of the People's Liberation Army."]]},"altro":{"title":"More","seg":{"decisioni":"Decisions","registro":"Register","calendario":"Calendar","metodo":"Method","chiedi":"Ask"}},"decisioni":{"lede":"How each scenario changes what matters to you: which assets benefit, which suffer, and the question to ask before deciding.","principleTitle":"The principle","principle":"A portfolio is not diversified by counting positions: it is diversified by counting <b>factors</b>. Two stocks from different sectors that respond to the same factor are a single position disguised as two.","matrixTitle":"Five factors, three scenarios","matrixLede":"How the assets linked to each factor move in the three Hormuz outcomes. A double arrow indicates a large move.","cols":{"a":"Reopening","b":"Stalemate","c":"Escalation"},"scale":{"0":"neutral","1":"rises","2":"rises sharply","-1":"falls","-2":"falls sharply"},"factors":[{"n":"Long-rate duration","sub":"long-duration tech, growth, crypto, real estate, long bonds","measure":"30-year Treasury","fx":{"a":1,"b":-1,"c":-2}},{"n":"AI capex","sub":"semiconductors, hyperscalers, and also electricity, turbines, grids, uranium, copper","measure":"high-yield spread and 30-year","fx":{"a":0,"b":-1,"c":-2},"callout":"<b>The costliest trap of this regime.</b> Anyone who adds electric power to a tech portfolio in the belief that they are diversifying is doubling up on the same factor: the electricity demand that underpins those valuations <b>is</b> data-centre capex. If the financing stops, they stop together, in the same quarter."},{"n":"Energy","sub":"oil, gas, shipping, defence","measure":"Hormuz transits, Brent","fx":{"a":-1,"b":1,"c":2},"callout":"It is the only real counterweight in the table: any protection against escalation runs through here."},{"n":"Dollar","sub":"every foreign-currency asset, and the purchasing power of anyone who lives in euros","measure":"dollar index","fx":{"a":-1,"b":1,"c":2}},{"n":"European sovereign risk","sub":"French banks, French real estate, mortgage rates, OATs","measure":"OAT-Bund spread","fx":{"a":1,"b":-1,"c":-2}}],"modulesTitle":"Four decisions","modules":[{"t":"Portfolio and investments","s":"How many distinct factors, not how many positions","steps":[{"h":"The concentration test","t":"Next to each position, write down which of the five factors drives it. If three lines out of four say “rates” or “AI”, the portfolio has one position, not four."},{"h":"The asymmetry on the table","t":"Escalation has a low probability but a much larger share of the expected damage. With the high-yield spread at {v:hy_oas} and gold below its January peak, protection is cheap."},{"h":"The silent risk","t":"In the digestion scenario nothing dramatic happens: equal-weight simply beats the index for months. A concentrated portfolio loses ground without ever receiving the signal that would force it to act."},{"h":"Moving has a cost","t":"Every reallocation in an ordinary securities account realises taxable capital gains. The tax cost of moving has to be weighed against the cost of not moving."}],"ask":"Does this move reduce the number of factors I am exposed to, or does it just add a name to the list?"},{"t":"Home and debt","s":"The OAT is not an abstract number: it is the price of your next mortgage","steps":[{"h":"The window has a date","t":"The 10-year OAT is around 4.5% and the spread over the Bund has exceeded 100bp for the first time since 2012. If the French political scenario materialises, rates will rise further: the window to lock in a fixed rate is before April 2027."},{"h":"Two opposing forces","t":"If Hormuz reopens, rates fall but house prices pick up again. If the spread widens, rates rise and prices fall. <b>Buying well and borrowing well rarely coincide</b>: choosing one is a decision, not a compromise."},{"h":"Fixed is not the obvious choice","t":"It is in the stalemate and in the escalation. In the reopening you pay a high rate for years while the market falls. Protection against the French scenario is worth that premium only if you think the dashboard's estimate is right."},{"h":"The less visible risk","t":"A wider spread hits French banks, which hold OATs. The channel is not just the rate: it is also the willingness to lend, which tightens before rates move."}],"ask":"Threshold to watch: OAT-Bund at 130bp. Above that level the French political sequence is already under way, and waiting costs more than it yields."},{"t":"Cash and protection","s":"Cash is an option on the future price, not idle capital","steps":[{"h":"Gold is the anomaly to understand","t":"It is about 23% below its January peak in the middle of a war: it is pricing rising real rates, not fear. It is not a safe haven today, and that is why it is cheap relative to the scenario in which it would be needed."},{"h":"Currency is a decision","t":"Anyone who lives and spends in euros and holds dollar assets is long the dollar, whether they know it or not. In the stalemate and the escalation the position helps; in the reopening it hurts twice, on the exchange rate and on the assets."},{"h":"Deposit guarantees are per bank","t":"In the European Union the guarantee is €100,000 per depositor per bank. It is a limit per institution, not a total: protection comes from spreading, not from concentrating."},{"h":"Waiting is almost free","t":"With the ECB deposit rate at 2.5% and dollar rates above 3.75%, holding cash costs almost nothing in real terms. That changes the calculation for every decision that can be postponed."}],"ask":"If escalation came tomorrow morning, would I have enough cash not to be forced to sell at the worst moment?"},{"t":"Timing and personal risk","s":"Irreversible decisions early, reversible ones late","steps":[{"h":"Before 3 November","t":"US midterm elections: the Democrats are favourites for the House, the Senate hangs in the balance. A divided government reduces fiscal room and the capacity to negotiate with Beijing."},{"h":"Before 10 January","t":"The double deadline with China: the date with the biggest gap between potential impact and the attention it receives."},{"h":"Before April 2027","t":"The French presidential election. Everything to do with debt, housing or taxes in France has a before and an after."},{"h":"The cost of waiting can be measured","t":"With cash earning interest, postponing a reversible decision by three months costs little. Postponing an irreversible decision beyond one of these dates can cost a lot."}],"ask":"Can I reverse this decision within three months? If so, wait for the next signal. If not, the calendar tells you the real deadline."}],"askLabel":"The question before acting","foot":"These modules link scenarios to exposures. They are no substitute for the advice of a licensed financial or tax adviser, the only person who can assess a situation as a whole and be accountable for that assessment."},"metodo":{"lede":"Ten rules, applied with numbers and thresholds, so that in six months' time it will be possible to say precisely where the analysis went wrong.","premiseTitle":"Premise","premise":"Nobody has a track record of accurate forecasts, and anyone who claims one should be viewed with suspicion: correct forecasts are always counted after the fact, discarding the same author's wrong ones. Those who genuinely foresaw 2008 or the energy shocks did not have a gift; they had <b>a few mechanical rules</b> applied with discipline.","rulesTitle":"The rules","today":"Today","rules":[{"t":"Look at the plumbing, not the narrative","p":"Systems break at the joints. In 2007 the signal was not house prices: it was the TED spread and conditions in the repo market. The price that moves first is the one nobody comments on.","c":"the swap spread at long maturities and the secondary market for debt linked to data centres."},{"t":"Ask who has to sell and who has to refinance","p":"Crises are not caused by those who choose to sell, but by those who are forced to. A long asset funded with short liabilities is a bomb with the date printed on it.","c":"13-20-year leases against 12-18-month chip cycles; France refinancing its debt at doubled yields; Russia's sovereign fund running dry."},{"t":"An exponential in a finite system always has a date","p":"When a quantity grows at a constant rate against a fixed capacity, forecasting becomes arithmetic. You do not need to guess, you need to divide.","c":"Russian refining against domestic demand, with repairs slower than the destruction."},{"t":"If a historical correlation breaks, the regime has already changed","p":"The most underrated signal, and the most reliable. There is no need to understand straight away why it broke: it is enough to notice and reclassify.","c":"gold falls in wartime, France pays more than Italy, central banks hike while core consumer price inflation is falling."},{"t":"Political constraints always beat political preferences","p":"Do not predict what a leader wants: predict what they can do, given their constraints. Majority, the price of debt, electoral base, calendar. Will is noise, constraint is signal.","c":"Trump wants low rates and the Fed led by his nominee hiked 12 to 0."},{"t":"Probability discharges on dates","p":"Events arrive on deadlines, meetings and elections. Build the calendar before the scenario.","c":"10 January 2027: the truce with China and the suspension of the rare-earth rule expire together, after a two-month extension on 24 September."},{"t":"Always write down the probability and the condition that would refute it","p":"A forecast without a number is an opinion; without a falsification criterion it is not even that. Writing both down forces you to change your mind when the facts demand it.","c":"the biggest gap in this analysis is declared: there are no reliable data on the return on capital invested in AI."},{"t":"The numbers are read by the code, not by the writer","p":"A number transcribed from an article is already an interpretation. Thirteen of the twenty-nine indicators arrive every morning directly from primary sources: FRED, ICE futures, transits measured by satellite by IMF PortWatch, Kalshi prices. The others always carry their source and date.","c":"the physical Brent premium over futures, which almost no headline reports, shows whether scarcity is real or merely priced."},{"t":"A threshold breaks twice, not once","p":"A single reading beyond the threshold is often noise. For market indicators a breach is declared only after two consecutive observations, and is lifted only beyond a second, more cautious threshold. In the meantime the row shows “awaiting confirmation”.","c":"fewer false alarms: an alarm that goes off too often stops being heard."},{"t":"The market is the yardstick; the register is not to be touched","p":"A probability is worth something only if it beats the one anyone can read for free. Every prediction with an equivalent question on Kalshi or Polymarket is compared every morning with that day's price. The probability, criterion and deadline recorded at opening can no longer be changed.","c":"every morning the register receives a SHA-256 hash chained to the previous day's and anchored to Bitcoin with OpenTimestamps."}],"wrongTitle":"How I could be wrong","wrong":[{"h":"Hormuz reopens and oil does not fall","t":"It would mean the premium was not a risk premium but structural supply. The 2027 disinflation does not arrive and the whole macro part is wrong."},{"h":"Credit stays calm even with the 30-year at 6%","t":"It would mean the channel from rates to credit to capex does not exist, because the hyperscalers self-finance more than the bond market suggests."},{"h":"The US labour market gives way before energy does","t":"Negative payrolls change the problem from inflation to recession: the Fed cuts in an emergency and the long end recovers for the wrong reasons."},{"h":"China acts on Taiwan before 2027","t":"I put a lot of weight on the CSIS assessment of a decapitated military commission. If the purges were consolidation rather than disorder, the quarantine estimate is too low."}],"gapsTitle":"The missing data","gaps":[{"h":"The return on AI capex","t":"There is no reliable public figure. It is the number on which the entire debate turns."},{"h":"The real state of Iranian enrichment","t":"440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, whose current quantity and location are both unknown to the IAEA."},{"h":"Ukrainian losses","t":"No credible figure; estimates of Russian losses come from the Ukrainian General Staff and are partisan."},{"h":"An unresolved discrepancy","t":"Core CPI at 2.4% against core PCE at 3.3%: an unusual gap, and both from primary sources. If the CPI were right, the Fed hiked for the wrong reason."}]},"registro":{"lede":"Every prediction is dated, numbered and compared with the market before the outcome. At expiry it becomes right or wrong and stays on the register either way: it is how to know, with numbers, whether this dashboard is worth more than a betting price.","edgeTitle":"Where the dashboard diverges from the market","edgeFoot":"Solid dot: the dashboard. Hollow circle: the equivalent market, read every morning on Kalshi or Polymarket. A wide divergence is an explicit bet against the consensus.","edgeNone":"No open prediction has an equivalent market today.","boardTitle":"The board, opened on 22 September 2026","tally":"{n} predictions · {ok} correct · {ko} wrong · {open} open","tapHint":"Tap a row for the resolution criterion.","criterion":"Resolution criterion","registered":"Registered on {d} at {p}%","revised":"revised on {d} to {p}%","marketExact":"Equivalent market","noMarket":"No prediction market","noMarketWhy":"No market on Polymarket or Kalshi prices this question: here, the only benchmark is the outcome.","marketProxy":"Related market, not compared in the score","atOpen":"At opening: {p}%","openMarket":"Open the market","outcome":"Outcome","by":"by","related":"related","scoreTitle":"The score","scoreFoot":"Calculated by the code on the probability registered at opening: later revisions cannot improve it.","scoreNone":"No prediction resolved yet. The first deadline is {d}: from then on the score updates itself, every morning.","brierOwn":"Dashboard Brier","brierOwnSub":"{n} resolved predictions, probability at opening","brierMkt":"Market Brier","brierMktSub":"on the {n} questions with an equivalent market (dashboard: {x})","brierTime":"Time-averaged Brier","brierTimeSub":"rewards whoever gets close to the outcome first","bin":"Band {b}","binSub":"{n} predictions · stated {f}% · occurred {o}%","proofTitle":"Today's hash","proofHash":"SHA-256 hash for {d}","proofPrev":"Previous day's hash","proofRecord":"Download the day's register","proofOts":"Download the OpenTimestamps proof","proofOtsSub":"verifiable with ots verify, anchored to Bitcoin","proofNone":"The hash appears when the dashboard reads the official register.","proofFoot":"The hash is calculated by your browser on the data just received and includes the previous day's: changing a single digit in the past breaks the whole chain. The OpenTimestamps proof becomes verifiable a few hours after publication, once the hash is included in a Bitcoin block.","howTitle":"How the score is kept","brierH":"Brier score","brierS":"It rewards calibration, not luck","brierP":"The mean of the squared differences between the stated probability and the actual outcome: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is equivalent to guessing at random on a binary outcome.","brierItems":["It does not reward those who guess right, it rewards those who are <b>calibrated</b>: if you say 70% and it happens 70% of the time, you are right even when you get the individual case wrong.","It exposes analysts' most common flaw, overconfidence: anyone who always says 90% is heavily penalised.","<b>Time-averaged Brier:</b> the same measure calculated on every day the prediction stayed open. It rewards those who get close to the outcome before others do.","<b>Calibration:</b> predictions grouped by probability band. If the 60-80% band comes true 40% of the time, the dashboard is overconfident."],"whyMktH":"Why compare with the market","whyMktS":"The test almost nobody publishes","whyMktP":"A Brier of 0.18 on its own says nothing. If the market scored 0.15 on the same questions, the dashboard destroyed value; if it scored 0.22, it created value. It is the only honest way to answer the question “is it any use?”.","whyMktItems":["<b>Equivalent:</b> same question, same resolution rule, same deadline. It counts towards the score.","<b>Related:</b> a similar question that differs in threshold or horizon. Shown for context, not compared.","The reference price is the one on the day of registration, as is the dashboard's probability: neither can be corrected after the fact."]},"chiedi":{"lede":"Query the current state of the indicators and scenarios. Useful questions are conditional: “if X happens, what changes”.","title":"Question","chips":["If Brent goes to $140, what happens, in sequence, over the following six months?","Which indicators are closest to their threshold right now?","Which of the five factors are more correlated than they seem?","What would I need to see within two weeks to know that the Hormuz reopening is winning?","What is the strongest argument against the central thesis?"],"placeholder":"If the OAT-Bund spread reaches 150bp, what changes for a French mortgage, and with what lag?","go":"Ask","hint":"Answers are based on the data on this page, not on real-time prices.","unavailable":"Querying is available only in the version of the dashboard hosted on Claude.","consent":"Your consent is needed to query the dashboard.","rate":"Too many questions in a row. Try again in a minute.","failed":"I couldn't answer","answerLang":"Answer in English."},"prodotto":{"title":"The product","sub":"Visible only here","items":[{"h":"The only barrier is the track record","s":"Why the register comes before everything else","t":"There are hundreds of macro-geopolitical newsletters. Analysis on its own is not a competitive advantage. <b>The only real barrier is a verifiable track record, compared with the market.</b> Almost nobody publishes their probabilities in advance, their own score after the fact and the market's score on the same questions. Anyone who does it for eighteen months running, with a hash that proves the dates, builds something that cannot be copied quickly."},{"h":"Free versus paid","s":"What demonstrates quality and what sells it","list":["<b>Free:</b> the state of the thresholds, the board and the score against the market.","<b>Paid:</b> the full causal chains, revised probabilities with the reasoning, alerts when a threshold breaks.","<b>Frequency:</b> weekly, with event alerts.","<b>The first decision:</b> publish in Italian, French or English."]},{"h":"Two constraints to clarify first","s":"With a professional, not by looking it up","list":["<b>The regulatory perimeter.</b> In Europe, disseminating investment recommendations entails transparency obligations, and personalised advice requires authorisation. Macro analysis without recommendations on specific instruments normally falls outside that perimeter, but the boundary should be checked with a lawyer before taking the first euro.","<b>Your employer's rules.</b> Many companies require outside activities to be declared and regulate personal dealing in financial instruments."],"note":"Neither of these is legal advice: they are the two questions to put to someone who can give it."}]},"foot":{"p1":"Market, credit, inflation and shipping-traffic data are read every morning by the code from primary sources: FRED, ICE, IMF PortWatch, Kalshi, Polymarket. The rest is researched with priority given to official sources, and carries its source and date next to the value.","p2":"Where sources diverge, the divergence is flagged. The probabilities are calibrated subjective judgements, not the output of a model.","warnH":"Disclaimer.","warn":"An analytical exercise, not financial advice or an investment recommendation. The probabilities are subjective estimates; the causal chains are hypotheses to be tested. The author is neither a financial adviser nor a lawyer."},"preds":{"p01":{"claim":"Daily transits through Hormuz exceed 40","res":"7-day moving average of transits through the Strait of Hormuz (IMF PortWatch) equal to or greater than 40 on at least one day by 31/12/2026."},"p02":{"claim":"The Fed raises rates at the 28 October FOMC meeting or at the December one","res":"The Federal Reserve announces at least one increase in the target rate at the FOMC meeting of 28 October or of 9 December 2026."},"p03":{"claim":"The high-yield OAS reaches 400bp at least once","res":"The ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) closes at 4.00 percentage points or higher in at least one session by 31/03/2027."},"p04":{"claim":"The US 30-year Treasury reaches 5.75% at least once","res":"The 30-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS30) closes at 5.75% or higher in at least one session by 31/03/2027."},"p05":{"claim":"Brent closes below $85 in at least one session","res":"The front-month Brent future (ICE) closes below $85 in at least one session by 31/12/2026."},"p06":{"claim":"The US-China tariff truce is extended by 10 November","res":"By 10/11/2026 the United States and China officially announce the extension of the tariff truce, or an agreement that replaces it, before the expiry date."},"p07":{"claim":"The Democrats win a majority in the House","res":"The Democratic Party wins a majority of seats in the House of Representatives in the elections of 3/11/2026 (certified results)."},"p08":{"claim":"The EU approves a legally binding text on the loan backed by Russian assets","res":"By 31/12/2026 the Council of the EU or the European Council adopts a legally binding act establishing the loan backed by immobilised Russian assets."},"p09":{"claim":"The OAT-Bund spread reaches 130bp at least once","res":"The 10-year OAT-Bund spread closes at 130bp or higher in at least one session by 31/03/2027."},"p10":{"claim":"Sectoral energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine","res":"By 31/03/2027 Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire, even one limited to the energy-infrastructure sector, that enters into force."},"p11":{"claim":"TTF gas reaches €100/MWh at least once","res":"The front-month TTF future closes at €100/MWh or higher in at least one session by 28/02/2027."},"p12":{"claim":"The UK 30-year gilt exceeds 6%","res":"The British 30-year gilt closes above 6.00% in at least one session by 31/12/2026."},"p13":{"claim":"New invocation of NATO's Article 4","res":"A NATO ally formally requests consultations under Article 4 by 30/09/2027."},"p14":{"claim":"A National Rally (RN) candidate wins the French presidential election","res":"A National Rally (RN) candidate wins the second round of the 2027 French presidential election (official result)."},"p15":{"claim":"China imposes a quarantine or an inspection regime on Taiwan","res":"By 30/09/2028 China imposes around Taiwan a quarantine, a blockade or a regime of mandatory inspections on maritime or air traffic."},"p16":{"claim":"The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed","res":"7-day moving average of transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (IMF PortWatch) equal to or less than 10 on at least one day by 31/12/2026. Probability derived from Hormuz scenario C (15%)."}},"v5":{"life":{"title":"What it means for you","sub":"Four parts of daily life that today's world is pushing on. Live numbers, plain words, no advice.","st":{"alert":"Under pressure","watch":"Worth watching","calm":"Calm","none":"No data"},"cards":[{"id":"energy","node":"energia","t":"Energy bills and fuel","x":"Diesel costs {v:fuel_eu} on average in the EU ({v:fuel_fr} in France). Oil is at {v:brent} a barrel and European gas at {v:ttf} per MWh. Gas storage is {v:eu_gas_storage} full going into winter.","w":"Would ease if Hormuz traffic climbs back above 20 ships a day."},{"id":"borrow","node":"fed","t":"Mortgages and loans","x":"Markets see a {v:fed_hike_mkt} chance that the US central bank raises rates again at its next meeting. A 30-year US mortgage now costs {v:mortgage30}; France pays {v:oat_bund} more than Germany to borrow.","w":"Breaking threshold: 30-year US rate above 5.75%."},{"id":"prices","node":"inflazione","t":"Prices in the shops","x":"In the euro area, prices are rising {v:eu_hicp} a year; in the US, {v:core_pce} excluding food and energy. Both above the 2% target. Long-run expectations stay at {v:be5y5y}: markets still believe inflation will come back down.","w":"Watch: whether expensive energy spreads to everything else."},{"id":"savings","node":"credito","t":"Savings and investments","x":"US shares are {v:spx_dd} from their high and historically expensive (valuation ratio {v:cape}; the 1999 bubble peaked at 44.2), while US government bonds now pay {v:us30y} over 30 years. Credit markets still price little risk ({v:hy_oas}).","w":"Warning sign: high-yield spread above 400 bp."}],"note":"General information, not investment advice. Tap a card to see the numbers and their sources.","howTitle":"How to read The Breaking Point","how":[{"h":"The facts","t":"Official data and verified news, updated every morning."},{"h":"The causes","t":"How one event drives the next, from a strait to your mortgage."},{"h":"The odds","t":"Our probabilities, checked against prediction markets and scored over time."}]},"plain":{"hormuz":"Sets the price of oil, and through it inflation and interest rates everywhere.","ai":"Decides whether the AI investment boom keeps being financed, and what happens to shares if it stops.","ru":"Decides Europe's energy security and how much it spends on defence.","cn":"Decides tariffs on everyday goods and the supply of rare earths for electronics.","slow":"Slow-building risks: French debt and politics, and Taiwan, where most advanced chips are made."},"plainScen":{"hormuz-a":"Iran and the US reach a partial deal: ships pass again, oil gets cheaper and the Fed stops raising rates.","hormuz-b":"No deal: the strait stays almost closed, oil stays at $95-115 and interest rates keep rising.","hormuz-c":"Both exits from the Gulf close: oil jumps to $140-160 and the world slides into recession.","hormuz-d":"Iran's regime falls from within: chaos and dearer oil first, then the strait reopens and oil drops sharply.","ai-1":"AI spending slows without a crash: companies paying cash are fine, those borrowing to build suffer.","ai-2":"Borrowing gets too expensive for new AI data centres to pay off, so the money to build them stops.","ai-3":"Oil and inflation fall, rates come down, and AI share prices climb back to 1999-bubble levels.","ru-1":"No breakthrough: the war goes on, fought with drones and strikes on refineries.","ru-2":"No peace, but both sides stop hitting refineries and power grids: diesel gets cheaper.","ru-3":"A full peace agreement with security guarantees. Nothing points to it today.","ru-4":"Russia's savings run out and its budget cracks, forcing Moscow to negotiate from weakness.","ru-nato":"Russian sabotage in NATO countries moves from harassment to real damage. It has already begun.","cn-1":"Washington and Beijing extend their truce: tariffs and Chinese rare-earth curbs stay on hold.","cn-2":"No extension: China requires a licence for every product in the world made with its rare earths.","fr":"The National Rally wins France's presidential election: French borrowing costs jump.","tw":"Not an invasion: China controls shipping around Taiwan and cuts it off from trade."},"brief2":{"vals":["Oil {v} a barrel","US core inflation {v}","Chance of a US rate hike: {v}","30-year US rate {v}"],"share":{"btn":"Share","title":"Share the briefing","sub":"The 90-second video of {d} · vertical MP4, ready for WhatsApp, Instagram or LinkedIn.","video":"Share the video","download":"Download the video","link":"Or share the link","copy":"Copy link","copied":"Link copied","more":"More…","email":"Email","close":"Close","novideo":"Today's video is being prepared. You can already share the link.","text":"Day {n} of the Hormuz closure: what it means for prices, rates and your savings, in 90 seconds.","every":"Updated every morning · {d}"},"len":"90 seconds","b1":{"k":"Day {n}","l":"days since the Strait of Hormuz closed","sub":"About a fifth of the world's oil used to pass through it. Today {v} ships a day get through, instead of about {b}."},"b2":{"k":"Why it matters to you","t":"From a strait to your mortgage","steps":["Oil stays expensive","Prices keep rising","Rates go up","Borrowing costs more"],"sub":"Mortgages, business loans and government debt get dearer: in the US first, then in Europe."},"b3":{"k":"The breaking point","t":"How close are we?","away":"{x} points away","sub":"Above {t} on the 30-year US rate, new AI data centres stop paying for themselves, and their funding could dry up."},"b4":{"k":"Biggest change today","none":"No probability moved today. Here is where we stand."},"b5":{"k":"Us versus the market","sub":"Markets tell you how much. We explain why. Time will tell who was right."},"b6":{"k":"What to watch next","t":"Three things that would change the picture","none":"Nothing is close to changing the picture today."}},"brand":{"tagline":"Understand today to be ready tomorrow","baseline":"Prediction markets tell you how much. Not why."},"market":{"title":"Us versus the market","sub":"Where causal reasoning and the crowd disagree. The market sets a price, we explain: between the two, the registry will show who was right.","you":"us","mkt":"market","related":"related market","gap":"{n} pt","foot":"The full registry, with Brier scores and deadlines","none":"No prediction market linked today."},"ui":{"why":"Why","read":"Read","open":"Open","chain":"The chain of causes","pts":"pt","from":"from","today":"today"},"hero":{"label":"days of Hormuz closure","ticks":"Each tick is one ship a day in normal times: {n}. Today, {v} pass on average.","normal":"normal {n}","now":"today {v}","play":"Watch the briefing","playLen":"90 seconds"},"prob":{"title":"Today's probabilities","sub":"For each dossier, how the 100% is split. Tap a dossier for the chain of causes.","singles":"Stand-alone probabilities","singlesSub":"Separate events, not shares of a 100%."},"changes":{"sub":"Tap a row for the reason and the sources.","first":"first data point","signals":"new verified signals"},"tens":{"title":"Three things that cannot all be true","sub":"Swipe. Tap “Why” for the reasoning."},"thesis":{"title":"The thesis, in three steps","readAll":"Read the full thesis","steps":[{"h":"A supply shock that became the regime","n":"+16.3%","l":"US energy prices, year on year"},{"h":"Risk moves to duration","n":"{v:us30y}","l":"30-year Treasury today"},{"h":"AI stops because of rates, not technology","n":"5.75%","l":"the breaking threshold on the 30-year"}]},"scen":{"jump":"Go to","fanRoot":"Today","fanAria":"How probability splits across the {f} scenarios","trips":{"scattato":"triggered","vicino":"near","lontano":"far"},"farMore":"{n} more, far","related":"Tripwires to watch for this scenario","news":"Latest signals on this scenario"},"sig":{"pushTitle":"Where the signals push","pushSub":"Last 7 days: how many signals strengthen or weaken each scenario. A count, not a weight.","up":"strengthen","down":"weaken","none":"No signals in the last 7 days."},"dati":{"wall":"The picture at a glance","wallSub":"Each tile is an indicator, with its status. Tap for the history.","detail":"In detail"},"brief":{"title":"The briefing","close":"Close the briefing","pause":"Pause","play":"Resume","prev":"Previous","next":"Next","replay":"Replay","explore":"Explore the map","hint":"Tap right to go forward, left to go back.","b1":{"k":"Hormuz","l":"days of a closed Strait","sub":"{v} transits a day. In normal times, {n}."},"b2":{"k":"Since yesterday","t":"What moved","none":"No probability changed since yesterday. Here is where we stand."},"b3":{"k":"Alert","t":"thresholds breached","none":"No threshold breached today."},"b4":{"k":"Signal of the day","none":"No new verified signal today."},"b5":{"k":"Where it could break","t":"The chain ends at long rates","sub":"30-year at {v}. The breaking threshold is {x}."},"b6":{"k":"The thesis"}}},"legal":{"foot":{"line":"General information, not investment advice.","link":"Legal notice, privacy and sources"},"title":"Legal notice","sub":"Publisher, host, privacy, sources","s":[{"h":"Publisher","p":["Site: breakingpointbrief.com (also served at the-breaking-point.vercel.app).","Published by a private individual on a non-professional basis. In accordance with Article 6-III-2 of French law no. 2004-575 of 21 June 2004 on confidence in the digital economy (LCEN), the publisher's identity has been provided to the host.","Contact: {mail}"]},{"h":"Host","p":["Vercel Inc., 440 N Barranca Avenue #4133, Covina, CA 91723, United States. vercel.com · privacy@vercel.com"]},{"h":"Not investment advice","p":["Everything on this site is general information and analysis. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.","Probabilities and scenarios are the publisher's own estimates. They can be wrong, and they are published with their date so that anyone can check them later. Prediction-market prices are shown for comparison only.","Figures come from third-party sources, may be delayed or revised, and are provided without any guarantee. The publisher accepts no liability for decisions taken on the basis of this site. For personal decisions, consult a licensed professional."]},{"h":"Privacy","p":["No cookies, no advertising, no audience measurement, no account. The site collects no personal data.","Your browser keeps your language and last tab on your device (local storage). This never leaves your device and needs no consent.","To deliver and protect the site, the host records technical logs such as IP address, date and page requested. See the Vercel privacy notice at vercel.com/legal/privacy-notice.","When you share the briefing through WhatsApp, X, LinkedIn or another service, that service's own policy applies.","Under the GDPR you can write to {mail} with any question. You can also contact the CNIL (cnil.fr)."]},{"h":"Sources and licences","p":["Economic series: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Shipping: IMF PortWatch. Pump prices: European Commission, Weekly Oil Bulletin (© European Union, reuse authorised) and the French Ministry of the Economy's fuel-price open data (Licence Ouverte / Etalab 2.0). Gas storage: GIE AGSI.","Market quotes (ICE futures, CBOE 30-year yield index, S&P 500) via Yahoo Finance, for information only and possibly delayed. Prediction-market prices: Kalshi and Polymarket.","News signals are credited one by one, with a link to the original source. Brand names belong to their owners.","Each day's record is hashed and timestamped with OpenTimestamps, so the history cannot be rewritten after the fact."]},{"h":"Reuse","p":["Texts, analyses and the briefing video: © {year} The Breaking Point. Sharing the video and quoting with a link to breakingpointbrief.com are welcome."]}]}}